Market Update Bancassurance January 2022

Article / 31 January 2022

Share

Like a deja vu, as we enter 2022 global bond market became volatile again, marked by an increase in US Treasury yields up to 1.70%. What caused it?
Normalization of economic growth and monetary policies become the main theme of global markets this year. The massive increase in US economic growth in 2021 accompanied by rising inflation prompted the US central bank (The Fed) to make monetary policy adjustments. The direction of the Fed's policy looks increasingly hawkish, accelerating the pace of tapering to USD30 billion per month (USD20 billion US Treasury and USD10 billion Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities) from previously only USD15 billion per month. 

In addition, the minutes of The Fed's meeting also indicated expectations of an increase in the benchmark interest rate up to 3 times this year. In fact, this has been anticipated by market participants, as can be seen from the consensus data that estimated that interest rates will increase more than twice this year, even since last November. High base factor has the potential to ease inflationary pressures and cause moderation in the release of economic data in the future, which makes central bank communication crucial, especially in the midst of the dynamics of pandemic and economic normalization. Dovish signals will be considered less sensitive to existing conditions, while signals that are too hawkish can provide negative sentiment for economic recovery and financial markets. Balance is the key.

Reflecting on the turbulence that occurred in 2013, can Indonesian economy today be 'resistant' to the impact of the Fed's normalization?

Like most other countries in Asia, Indonesia is in better state compared to 2013 when The Fed announced their quantitative easing program. Macroeconomic stability indicators such as real interest rates, inflation, current account balance, and foreign exchange reserves showed significant improvements so that this condition could make Indonesia stronger in facing US monetary policy normalization. As long as normalization process is communicated well, is going as planned, and US Treasury yield hike occurs gradually, then Indonesia seems to be ready to face the normalization.

What is the potential of the Indonesia’s rupiah-denominated bond market this year?
In theory it is true that during interest rate hikes cycle periods, bond asset class will face more challenges, in accordance with the principle that interest rates and bond prices are inversely related. However, what needs to be observed is that Indonesia's macroeconomic fundamentals are very good and are better prepared to deal with potential interest rate hikes, supported by several things: 

1. Reduced targets for Government bond issuance in 2022 to IDR991.3 trillion.
   
2. Economic recovery and government's plan to reduce budget deficit to under 3% in 2023 have the potential to reduce financing pressures and the issuance of SBN in the future. So far, economic recovery had positive impact on state revenues, with tax revenues – for the first time in twelve years – exceeding the State Budget target by 14.9%.
   
3. Low foreign ownership – which has fallen to 19% vs 37% in 2018 in which interest rate hikes also occurred – can reduce the risk of foreign portfolio outflows when global sentiment conditions worsen.
   
4. The continuation of burden sharing scheme between Bank Indonesia and Ministry of Finance can reduce financing pressure in the primary market. Throughout 2021, Bank Indonesia had purchased SBN through burden sharing mechanism of IDR358.3 trillion.
   
5. Utilization of Over Budget Balance (Saldo Anggaran Lebih / SAL) of IDR269.2 trillion – larger than the average SAL in the last 10 years at IDR146.3 trillion – can be used to cover shortfalls in financing in 2022. 
   
    
   
   
    

We have talked earlier about rupiah currency bonds, what about the opportunity for dollar-denominated bonds?
Historically, although dollar-denominated bonds are influenced more by movements in US Treasury yields, the previously mentioned rupiah bond catalysts also have positive impacts on dollar bonds. The low number of plans to issue dollar bonds, which is only around 11%-14% of the total issuance of SBN, could reduce the amount of supply in the market. In addition, dollar bonds are also supported by the stabilization of the five-year Indonesian credit default swap at <80 basis points, lower than the average in the last 3 months at 81.15 basis points. 

Other than the potential catalysts you mentioned, what risks factors do we need to monitor?
The development of COVID-19 new variants and the efficacy of the vaccines, government and central bank’s communications on changes in monetary and fiscal policies – the magnitude and the speed – as well the volatility of US Treasury yields are some of the main risk factors that need to be monitored going forward. The quality of economic data release in the coming months will affect how global monetary policy normalization will be carried out. Especially for domestic market, economic growth acceleration that can impact the rate of credit growth is one of the factors that needs to be observed considering that so far banks have been the majority buyers of SBN.

What portfolio strategy will you apply to face the highly dynamic 2022?
In order to generate alpha on portfolio performance, management will be based on a top-down approach – global and domestic macroeconomic analysis and the strength of bottom-up analysis – for optimal portfolio formation. Our investment strategy will pay attention to several aspects:

• Duration management
  Prioritizing active management and performance stability, where the duration of the portfolio will be very dynamically Overweight or Underweight against the benchmark, depending on the outlook and view of the market prospects. 
  
  
• Security selection
  Reducing the portion of the off the run series in order to maintain liquidity and optimal returns.
  
  
• Yield enhancement
  Maximizing potential returns on the cash portion of the portfolio by placing in money market corporate bonds with strong and reliable credit worthiness.
  

   

In addition, we also continue to monitor liquidity and volatility to ensure that investment management provides optimal returns with controlled risks.

PENGUNGKAPAN DAN SANGGAHAN:

Informasi di dalam dokumen ini disusun berdasarkan sumber yang dapat dipercaya oleh PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia namun PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia tidak menjamin keakuratan, kecukupan, atau kelengkapan informasi dan materi yang diberikan. Baik PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia atau afiliasinya, maupun direksi, pejabat atau pegawainya tidak bertanggung jawab atas segala konsekuensi hukum dan keuangan yang timbul, baik terhadap atau diderita oleh orang atau pihak apapun dan dengan cara apapun yang dianggap sebagai akibat dari tindakan yang dilakukan atas dasar keseluruhan atau sebagian dari dokumen ini.

Dokumen ini disusun untuk tujuan pemberian informasi dan tidak dimaksudkan untuk memberikan rekomendasi, nasihat professional, penawaran, penjualan atau ajakan oleh atau atas nama PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia kepada siapa pun untuk melakukan pembelian atau penjualan efek. Dokumen ini tidak memuat nasihat investasi, hukum, akuntansi, perpajakan atau pernyataan bahwa suatu investasi atau strategi sesuai atau cocok untuk kondisi Anda, atau merupakan rekomendasi personal untuk Anda. Analisa trend ekonomi di dalam dokumen ini tidak mengindikasikan hasil kinerja investasi masa depan. Dokumen dan pendapat yang disampaikan di dalam dokumen ini dibuat oleh PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia pada tanggal publikasi dokumen, dan dapat berubah sesuai dengan kondisi pasar atau lainnya. Kinerja masa lalu tidak mencerminkan kinerja masa datang. Investasi mengandung risiko, termasuk risiko berkurangnya nilai awal investasi. Dalam melakukan investasi, apabila ada keraguan, disarankan untuk berkonsultasi dengan penasihat profesional.

PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia adalah perusahaan Manajer Investasi dengan izin dari Bapepam No. Kep-07/PM/MI/1997 tertanggal 21 Agustus 1997. PT Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia adalah bagian dari Manulife Asset Management. Informasi selengkapnya mengenai Manulife Asset Management dapat ditemukan di www.manulifeam.com. Manulife Asset Management, Manulife, dan desain logo Manulife adalah merk terdaftar dari Manufacturers Life Insurance Company dan digunakan oleh Manulife dan afiliasinya.